Lex Petros: The next change in Egypt and the Arab world

Monday, February 14, 2011

The next change in Egypt and the Arab world

First it was the government of Tunisia, then followed by Egypt. Now a wake of change ripples across the Arab word.
Jordan entire cabinet has been sacked by King Abdullah.
Yemen's President Ali Abdullah Yemeni announced he will not be running re-election in 2013.
In Sudan, daily protests are happening in Khartoum over the economy and corruption.
Old governments are stale and corrupt in the eyes of the people. Revolutions are unfolding all cross the Middle East for the sake of democracy and economical reforms.
The Egyptian parliament is dissolved and the constitution is suspended yesterday for the transition process to civilian rule, but this will not be happening until the elections in September which is another 6 months away. The "caretaker" cabinet appointed shortly after the January 25 protests will hold the reigns, but no one really knows whether the military will allow number 2, Omar Suleiman to play any role in Egypt's transition. A suspended constitution means an uncharted jurisprudential land.
The economy needs to recover. Banks will only open in 2 days and trading will continue this Wednesday. But the military's stake in Egypt which was held tightly under Mubarak's rule will unlikely be given up, hence the question of what is the next move of the Armed Forces Supreme Council.
The Armed Forces Supreme Council will hold the interim government whilst every stakeholder will strive for clear demarcations and referendum for general acceptance. The military is the ruler of Egpyt after Mubarak handed it power. Commanders of each branch, chief of staff and Defence Minister Hussein Tantawi sits on the Council. A day after the resignation of Hosni Mubarak, the military announced that they will keep the nation's peace until the transition and to uphold the peace treaty signed with Israel; whether that is comforting.
Power now rests entirely with the military under the Supreme Council. Omar Suleiman and the caretaker cabinet ministers no doubt will have to do their bidding.
What of the pro-syaria establishment Muslim Brotherhood? Its assertion that their understanding of Islam is the 'true one'. It called on Egyptians to unite to confront the forces of Zionism and imperialism and pursue economic development and social justice. But, will there by space for democracy, human rights and women's liberation if they become the ruling party is anyone's guess.
The concerns have been highlighted.


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